March 9 – Finding the risk premium for war in Iran

The week ahead will include a wealth of economic data, though most of that could be drowned out by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO.

"The Middle East will remain the dominant narrative driver for day-to-day price action, but this week's economic data provides key cross-checks on whether we are facing a pure inflation shock, a growth shock, or both," Jacky says.

He also notes that history has shown that the impacts of even major conflicts on markets tend to be fleeting. “Geopolitical events have rarely had a lasting effect on global stock markets unless they had significant economic impact. So far, our outlook for equity markets remains positive,” Jacky says, pointing to safe haven demand for government bonds, and the possibility of higher gold prices and a firmer US dollar.

But even if economic data won’t be top of mind this week, Jacky points to some important reports due, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. “We think the Fed could stay on hold in the next few months and monitor closely the inflation trends.”

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