In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX, we explore how politics, monetary policy and fiscal stimuli are set to reshape major currency paths in 2026. This publication navigates the nuanced interplay of risks and opportunities across key currency blocks, highlighting the drivers most likely to shape FX performance over the next twelve months. We also present our corresponding exchange rate forecasts. 

 

Key takeaways:

  • The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently traded within a well-defined range. This consolidation phase may continue in the near term, with monetary policy divergence and geopolitical developments likely to dictate the medium-term trajectory.
  • The narrowing interest rate differential between US and Japanese bonds may provide support for JPY appreciation against the USD in the coming quarters.
  • The CNY traded below the USD/CNY 7.00 mark for the first time since May 2023. Beijing remains interested in a strong CNY. Sustained strength will depend on China’s growth trajectory.

'

The PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint is currently available and client-ready for the following regions: Germany, Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific.

PDF

Language:

Related special reports

podcast hero

PERSPECTIVES Weekly Podcast

October 19 – Watching for earnings in a volatile environment

Markets have been volatile, with both tech shares and bond yields wobbling – and there are a lot of reasons behind this says EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen in this week's episode.

Oct. 19, 2026

Financial market chart on smartphone with trading graphs in background

PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Equity

Higher for longer: Implications for the stock market

In this Viewpoint Equity, we revisit the relationship between bond yields and equity markets as government bond yields reach multi-year highs.

Oct. 15, 2026

desktop us midterms 2026

PERSPECTIVES Special

2026 US Midterms: How Congressional control may shape policy and markets

Voter concerns over affordability and the economy could determine control of Congress and reshape the policy and market landscape. This report examines how different outcomes could influence economic growth, market leadership and sector opportunities.

Oct. 13, 2026

Federal Reserve building facade with eagle sculpture.

PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX

Central banks back in the spotlight

After several weeks during which geopolitical developments were the dominant driver of currency markets, central bank policy has once again emerged as a decisive influence on exchange rate movements. We assess the likely direction of major currencies and the key factors expected to shape their performance.

Oct. 02, 2026

supply disruption powers up prices desktop

PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Commodities

Supply disruption powers up prices

Explore the latest commodities outlook as supply disruptions, energy market volatility, central bank gold demand and growing copper needs from electrification and AI influence commodity prices.

Oct. 01, 2026

Skyline against office building

PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Fixed Income

Credit spreads’ quiet resilience

Corporate bond yields have also moved higher, largely because of the rise in underlying benchmark yields. Spreads to these benchmarks, however, have remained broadly resilient. We explore the implications in this publication.

Sep. 29, 2026

See more

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S.

The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

This web page is not an offer to buy a security or enter into any transaction. The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.