Our PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint – designed to provide regular, up-to-date analysis of key trends in all the major asset classes.
This PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Commodities: Relief with Reservation explores the recent unwinding of acute energy price increase, particularly in oil, while highlighting deep-seated geopolitical risks and production lags. We evaluate how evolving central bank policy and industrial demand underpin the divergent trajectories of precious and base metals, assessing areas of emergent stability against a backdrop of enduring volatility and critical supply vulnerabilities.
Key takeaways:
- Oil prices have declined significantly but the path to full normalization won't be smooth as production restarts will take time. Gas markets also run the risk of a slower ramp-up due to incidents in Qatar.
- Gold and silver will be highly sensitive to the Fed's stance and real yields, leading to near-term headwinds. Structural support for gold exists, but waning silver momentum makes it more tactical.
- Copper has been buoyed by AI optimism and persistent supply constraints. But US tariff decision present key near-term factors.
