Europe has weathered the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis better than the energy shock of 2022. But does a more muted market and economic reaction mean the region has become truly resilient?
This PERSPECTIVES Special explores how Europe's energy security, supply chains and policy response have evolved in recent years, separating cyclical factors from deeper structural changes. It also examines the implications for inflation, growth and European equities, and what Europe's growing focus on resilience means for investors.
Key takeaways
- European resilience should not be measured solely by the ability to absorb short-term shocks. Improvements to long-term competitiveness, productivity and private-sector investment are key. Without them, the approach to European resilience may remain defensive and state-dependent rather than focusing on becoming a durable growth driver.
- Limited economic fallout from the 2026 Hormuz crisis – compared to the 2022 energy shock – reflects a more favourable macroeconomic background as well as increased supply-side resilience. With euro-area inflation already close to the 2% target before the crisis, only modest monetary policy tightening is expected.
- European equities have weathered the recent energy shock relatively well, with earnings forecast upgrades largely concentrated in the energy sector. Europe’s resilience agenda could create new opportunities across utilities, defence, industrials and technology.
