Global bond markets are entering a new era of steeper curves and persistently higher yields. Structural shifts, fiscal slippage, and evolving investor dynamics – from US Treasuries to Bunds, Gilts, and JGBs – signal a world where duration risk and policy uncertainty dominate the outlook. For investors, this means navigating a landscape defined by elevated term premia, shifting issuance strategies, and heightened sensitivity to global monetary pivots.
Key takeaways:
- Yield curves remain steep across major markets, driven by fiscal pressures and structural shifts despite policy easing.
- Elevated deficits and rising issuance are shaping long-end yields globally, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative.
- In Europe, spreads reflect national fundamentals, while gilts and JGBs face unique structural and policy challenges.
- Debates over monetary independence add policy risks in the US while higher yields in Japan can pose demand risks for other markets.
