CIO Publications

Global Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting reflects on the year to date, outlining the key risks and emerging opportunities shaping markets — and what they could mean for investors in 2026.

Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting and the CIO team discuss where the global economy and markets may be headed – and what this could mean for investors in the year ahead.

Europe's story is one of cautious optimism, strategic intervention, and the search for sustainable growth. Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s CIO for Germany, Ulrich Stephan, outlines what investors should watch out for in the year ahead.

Deutsche Bank’s CIO for Emerging Markets, Professor Dr Jacky Tang, explores how fierce competition for critical commodities, shifting supply chains and evolving policy landscapes are shaping risks and opportunities for investors in 2026.

Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s CIO for the Americas, outlines how AI-driven innovation, economic resilience, and shifting market dynamics in the US are setting the scene for recovery and opportunity in 2026 and beyond.

The global economy is in flux, trade flows are shifting and new technologies are redrawing the economic map. In PERSPECTIVES 2026, we look to the year ahead across our ten key investment themes, identifying opportunities and risks for investors.

We assess the key features of the EU-Mercosur agreement, its implications for investment and trade flows, and the equity market sectors most likely to benefit on both sides.

The conflict has escalated with direct US-Israel strikes on Iran and regional retaliation. Risks to energy supply have increased significantly, as energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted. Read more.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at the outlook for private markets. We consider recent developments supporting greater investor participation, the macroeconomic factors affecting investment allocation and our base case outlook and risks for 2026. Read more.

The global sports industry has entered a new growth phase. We look at the reasons behind this growth, M&A activities and private investment, why regional differences matter for investors and the opportunities for further sports industry innovation.

Parabolic precious metals gains snapped as margin hikes and crowded positioning triggered historic single-day plunges. This update evaluates the outlook for gold and silver.

Carry is taking centre stage again in 2026 as credit markets navigate elevated supply, tight valuations, and the accelerating AI financing cycle.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we explore how Japan’s evolving geoeconomic strategy, innovation push, and corporate transformation are set to reshape the investment landscape in the years ahead.

US President Donald Trump announced on social media that the United States would implement a 10% tariff on eight European nations (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark) with effect from February 1, amid opposition to US intentions for Greenland. Read more.

In this publication we explore how politics, monetary policy and fiscal stimuli are set to reshape major currency paths in 2026 and present our corresponding exchange rate forecasts.

Financial markets remain largely unaffected by the removal of Venezuela‘s President Maduro. Our positive market and economy outlook for 2026 also remains unchanged.

Global bond markets are entering a new era of steeper curves and persistently higher yields. We explore what this landscape could mean for investors.

Ranging from gold to rare earths, this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint dives into the forces driving volatility, opportunity, and risk across the commodity spectrum.

This report examines the key drivers behind the momentum in Japan’s stock market and outlines the factors drawing increased investor interest. Read for more information.

PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Equity: China’s Q3 earnings: sectoral divergence, spotlights how policy support, AI infrastructure, and green energy are helping to drive selective investment opportunities. Read for more information.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special – Spain: Impressive economic growth, once again, we explore the reasons for this success, while also addressing the structural challenges that Spain faces, which include productivity gaps, housing shortages, and political uncertainty. Read for more information.

On Wednesday, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered her second Autumn Budget against a backdrop of slowing growth, elevated borrowing costs, and persistent domestic political uncertainty.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Equity: India’s equity market – Ready to rebound?, we examine whether India’s recent equity market underperformance signals a prolonged trend or sets the stage for a catch-up, as domestic resilience and global dynamics shape the outlook for the year ahead.

The APEC meeting in South Korea saw the signing of major trade deals between the US and many Asian economies. Dive into our special report for insights into what these developments may mean for markets, sectors, and your portfolio.

China stands at a crossroads as the 4th Plenary Session unveils the blueprint for its 15th five-year plan (2026–2030). Our report explores how the country is shifting its focus from rapid expansion to high-quality, innovation-driven growth, signalling a new era for both domestic and global stakeholders.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint, we examine the drivers behind the AI rally, compare today’s market dynamics with past technology bubbles, and highlight the critical differences that set this cycle apart.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX, we analyse the factors expected to influence exchange rates in the coming months. We also provide our 12-month outlook for the USD and some other currencies.

In this PERSPECTIVES report, we examine the recent outperformance of China’s onshore equities (A-shares) relative to offshore equities (H-shares), explore the key drivers behind the A-share rally, and assess its sustainability.

This PERSPECTIVES Special explores the nuances behind the numbers, showing that ESG performance depends heavily on how it's defined, implemented and measured. Read for more details today.

Italy’s economy has convincingly weathered the events of recent years and is now a relatively strong performer in a European context. This new PERSPECTIVES Special report considers the implications for the country’s future development and financial markets.

Commodity prices followed divergent paths in the first half of 2025. In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Commodities, we explain recent price moves and discuss our outlook for key commodities over the next 12 months.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX: Headwinds for the USD persist, we address the recent shift in focus from monetary policy decisions to the fiscal and trade policies of the US and the likely near-term developments in this regard. We also provide our outlook for the USD and a number of other currencies.

Reports indicate that the U.S. is demanding unilateral tariff reductions from the EU, similar to concessions offered by other countries to the U.S. Go through this article for complete information.

Alternative investments are an increasingly important asset class and have experienced robust growth over the past two decades. In this report, we look at the advantages and challenges of integrating them into a portfolio.

As demand surges, primarily due to electrification and data centre expansion, the need for low-emission energy sources becomes critical. This transition necessitates significant investments in grid expansion and modernisation to integrate renewable energy sources while maintaining system stability and resilience.

China unveiled several stimulus measures on May 7 and it was confirmed that the U.S. and China would hold official tariff negotiations this week. In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we look at the impact of these events on Chinese equities.

The first 100 days of the President Trump’s second presidency has clearly pointed to an ‘America First’ agenda. We take a closer look at portfolio impact and what this means for investors globally in this PERSPECTIVES Special.

In this CIO Special, we look at four possible investment areas and consider their merits.

U.S. trade and tariff policies and their lack of predictability have caused significant price fluctuations in all areas of the financial markets. Browse this page for more details.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced his decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China. The reciprocal tariffs, which were announced a week prior, were set to take effect on April 9th and targeted a broad range of trading partners.

The U.S. administration has now announced the details of its “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners. In this CIO Perspectives Memo, “Liberation Day” rattles markets, we discuss how they will work, what could happen next and the implications for economies, financial markets and investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX: Paradigm shift in the currencies markets – we examine the factors influencing the development of exchange rates in the next twelve months and present our corresponding forecasts.

Long term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) form a vital component of systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. This report highlights significant developments to our 10-year (i.e. 2025-2034) asset class return assumptions since the last review, and the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, amongst other factors. It presents LTCMA for selected sub-asset class indices within equities, fixed income and commodities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint – China: Upside driven by AI optimism and policy stimulus, we evaluate the rally seen in Chinese equities, comment on the implications of a U.S. growth slowdown and potential tariffs.

These changes should accelerate Europe’s path to decarbonization, reinforcing the EU’s leadership in climate policy. Industries will need to adapt to tighter regulations, while investors navigate an evolving carbon market with new risks and opportunities. The coming years could shape the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility, potentially setting a precedent for future carbon pricing mechanisms worldwide.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint, we look at joint financing options and possible growth effects of increased defence spending, as well as special features within the European defence industry and their relevance for investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we investigate the structural drivers of healthcare along with the recent developments and main opportunities in the sector. We also provide a market outlook focused on earnings prospects, valuation, and potential cyclical tailwinds.

The Spanish economy completed 2024 with impressive economic growth. Although a slight deceleration of GDP growth is expected in 2025, Spain should continue to deliver very solid economic performance compared to the Eurozone average, thanks to lower interest rates, a healthy labour market and less trade exposure to the U.S.

Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer for the Private Bank, discusses his predictions for Sunday's German federal elections, the possible outcomes and the implications for investors under different scenarios, with Nico Nonnenmacher, the Private Bank's Head of Communications.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at both the prospects for tariffs implementation and their possible impact on U.S. and European equities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we will look for how any potential end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact financial markets.

Commentary on the latest equity market developments, possible determinants going forward and our view concerning U.S. and German equity markets. Plus a short update on Q4 2024 earnings season that is getting into full swing.

On January 20, DeepSeek, an AI spin-off from a local Chinese hedge fund, launched a free AI assistant app. By yesterday, it had overtaken other well-known AI assistants in the number of smartphone app downloads. With its growing traction, the underlying details of its development gained attention as well.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we examine the reasons behind the UK assets’ bumpy start to the year. Issues covered include the re-pricing of global interest rate expectations, vulnerabilities from the UK’s “twin deficit”, the fiscal outlook, Bank of England policy options and the outlook for sterling, UK bonds and UK equities.

In this report, we provide an overview of corporate earnings for the September quarter 2024, explain the reasons for the recent FPI outflows and dive into market valuations. We conclude by analysing high frequency data to gauge growth prospects.

Central banks have successfully brought down inflation rates close to target levels and pivoted monetary policy towards a rate cut cycle. We discuss the factors currently driving bond markets and present our view on bond asset classes.

In this CIO Viewpoint Equity, we evaluate China's recent monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements.

We explore anticipated central bank policy moves, their potential impact on currency pair volatility, the outlook for the next twelve months and the possible developments in currencies that investors should take into account in their investment decision-making.

In this CIO Viewpoint Equity we comment on the latest equity market developments, elaborate on our new September 2025 equity index targets and share our view on how the relative performance of Cyclicals vs. Defensives might evolve from here.

In this CIO Viewpoint, we discuss the recent macro-economic developments, policy action in China and provide our view on Chinese equities.

In this report, we look at the key drivers of the fundamental rerating of Japanese equities. We also evaluate the short-term outlook based on BoJ and market uncertainties.

Portfolio decarbonization will become an increasingly important topic. Investors need to understand the key issues involved.

In this CIO Special report we examine what’s driving Earth Overshoot Day and where innovation is offering hope for our planet's future.

Carbon markets are likely to play a major role in promoting sustainability and innovation, offering new opportunities for investors and policymakers alike.

The renewable energy sector is experiencing remarkable growth. However, this rapid expansion faces challenges. In this report, we explain why the renewable energy sector’s trajectory remains positive.

In the latest PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Commodities – Gold & silver in demand, oil price range seems limited, we discuss gold, silver and oil and examine the causes of past price movements. We also address the factors to look out for regarding these commodities and the opportunities we still see for investors in each case.

It remains a challenging environment for the German housing market, but rate cuts, economic growth and structural rental market shortages should help the market to bottom out.

China recently released a flurry of Q1 economic data. But while GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, some other activity measures continue to disappoint. So has China’s economy really turned a corner?

Bitcoin is unlikely to assert itself as a widespread medium of exchange but may be on its way to mainstream acceptance as a store of value, although the risks of holding it remain high.

Favourable long-term trends for the electric-vehicle market remain intact – but an excess supply of battery metals means the outlook for miners remains clouded.

Sustainable food systems (SFS) deliver food security and nutrition in ways that are sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. Transitioning towards sustainable food systems could open up business opportunities worth USD4.5 trillion per year by 2030.

India, the world’s largest democracy, is heading to a national vote, with results expected by the end of May. Almost one billion registered voters will make this the biggest election exercise anywhere, ever.

The empowerment of women in the labour force is important in ways that go beyond the critical matter of social justice. Female financial inclusion and gender equality are “macrocritical” to boosting economic activity.

Strategic asset allocation for private clients starts with detailed knowledge of an investor’s risk profile, investment horizon, and performance targets, among other considerations.

For investors, digitisation provides a wide range of investment alternatives, with business activities such as cloud computing, Internet of Things (IoT), digital entertainment, and others showing substantial growth potential.

Adherence to strong convictions in the face of market-moving events can potentially trigger undesirable timing mistakes. Asymmetric strategies can allow more potential upside for a given portfolio risk.

The key to sustained long-term returns from ESG investment is effective strategic asset allocation.

Once we looked to technology to make transportation systems cheaper, faster or safer. But “smart mobility” needs to be more sustainable too - and the primary challenge may be social in nature.

The expansion of the BRICS coalition, with six nations set to join at the start of 2024, will provide the group with increased access to mineral resources and impact global supply chains.

Environmental constraints mean that system changes will be necessary to meet four key human demands –for energy, food, manufacturing and mobility.

Our planet provides an abundance of land-based resources that we use to meet our needs, but just five key demand areas - cement, aluminium, steel, plastics, and food - account for around 37% of global CO2 emissions.

This CIO Special on one of our long-term investment themes looks at possible future developments in the infrastructure sector, based on the four key themes of resilience, sustainability, innovation and inclusivity.

In our latest publication, we take a deep look at the importance of biodiversity, particularly from an investor's perspective.

Our CIO Special report looks at a central challenge for the world today: how we produce and use energy in a more sustainable way.

In our CIO Special, we look at the regulatory picture in jurisdictions around the world and consider the investment outlook.

In our latest CIO Special – India: Why it will be a USD 7 trillion economy by 2030 – we look at the structural shifts taking place currently in India which are setting the stage for it to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of this decade.

Sustainability and security considerations, enhanced policy support and technological development are making European infrastructure an investment focus.

Some measures of inflation may be at, or near, their peak but this is by no means the end of the story. In our new special report, we draw some broad conclusions.

The real estate sector faces a difficult global economic environment as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy. We consider the varying circumstances and outlooks for different sectors and regions.

Cities both exacerbate climate change and suffer from its consequences – e.g. through flooding, or excess heat, or changing patterns of disease. Getting them to work better must be a key environmental and social priority.

Energy price volatility has had an obvious impact on ESG portfolios this year, but we also need to consider the longer-term dynamics around energy and commodity markets.

Our CIO Special looks at the rapidly growing Asian energy market and how policymakers are trying to satisfy growing demand – while also reducing carbon emissions and improving energy security.

In this CIO Special we look at the remarkable progress that India has achieved in its energy transition from fossil-fuel based sources to sustainable and green ones.

Remote working looks likely to persist in some form for many employees as the world learns how to live with coronavirus. But our new CIO Special argues that remote working needs to be seen as just one component of a continuing process of workplace change.

In our new CIO Special we analyse the developments and trends impinging on cyber security and we focus on the issues and challenges created by increasing online transactions and interactions.

Our new CIO Special looks at why AI technology is now advancing fast, and the evolution of the sector from an investor’s perspective.

In our new CIO Special, we look at the major ongoing transformation of our transportation infrastructure.

Millennials form an increasingly important group in many economies, in both economic and political terms. Our new CIO Special report looks at trends that are shaped by the Millennial generation and how investors can benefit from them.

Markets remain focused on the Middle East, and there are risks that the dislocations in energy prices could linger even if the fighting soon cools, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. He discusses the implications for central banks and investors in this week's episode.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Naoko Ishii, Executive Vice President of the University of Tokyo and Director of the Center for Global Commons, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discuss putting nature on the balance sheet and how to build a coordinated financial response to this global challenge.

The Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Dr. Philipp Rode of the London School of Economics (LSE) look at how cities can adapt to increasing social, economic and environmental pressures in an ever-more urbanised world.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Anna Katharina Mayer, Club of Rome member and FindingSustainia co-founder, look at the complex issues around measuring sustainability – in other words, how we assess the real impact of corporate, government and individual actions on the natural world around us.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank's ESG CIO Markus Müller and Deutsche Bank Research’s Marion Laboure look at value chains in the global economy – and why there are increasing concerns about their sustainability.

Claire Coustar of Deutsche Bank’s Investment Bank joins Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer ESG & Global Head Chief Investment Office at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, to discuss the recent evolution of the sovereign carbon credits market and how it will help us value and protect natural assets.

Marion Laboure, Senior Economist at Deutsche Bank and Research Lecturer at Harvard University, joins Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer ESG & Global Head Chief Investment Office at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, to discuss the continuing process of workplace change and the Remote working and Robotics (ReRo) revolution.

University of Oxford professor and medical device innovator Constantin Coussios joins Deutsche Bank’s Christian Nolting to discuss how digitalisation and demographics are converging to improve lives and create investment opportunities.